Research Article

Dynamic Linkages between Food Security and Carbon Emission in India: Evidence from the ARDL Model

Aysha Khan* and Mohd. Azam Khan

Department of Economics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India

*Corresponding author e-mail: khan.aysha99@hotmail.com

(Received: 25/08/2025; Revised: 10/03/2026; Accepted: 14/06/2026; Published: 20/06/2026)

ABSTRACT

The increased carbon emissions have triggered global action in the form of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), along with climate summits.  The prime objective of this study revolves around the provision of sustainable food to the ever-increasing population of India. The present paper seeks to analyze the impact of crop production index (CPI), food production index (FPI) and livestock production index (LPI) on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in India. It devises the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) and the Phillips-Perron (PP) test to check the stationarity of the data series. The paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the results for the years 1990 to 2020. The results reveal long-run and short-run estimates of the study variables. The study utilizes Error Correction Term (ECT) to indicate the rate at which the series reaches long-term equilibrium. It establishes a long-run link between the variables, indicating a significant positive relationship between CPI, LPI, and CO₂. Further, the diagnostic tests reveal data normality, with no heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The findings offer valuable insights into sustainable agricultural practices and provide policy directives to attain more climate-resilient food production techniques, enhancing production efficiency and fostering environmental awareness

Keywords: Carbon Emissions, ARDL, Food security, Error Correction Term, India,

JEL Classification: Q18; Q53

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